Valley sees possible shift

By Bob Stuart

Published: November 1, 2008

Bridgewater College history and political science professor David McQuilkin saw a shift in Shenandoah Valley politics during the heated Democratic primary campaign between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama earlier this year.

“There was a belief either one of those two could achieve the presidency and that if they were going to do so, there would be a full national campaign in all 50 states,’’ he said.

The traditionally red Shenandoah Valley may not be blue yet, but there are signs it could be changing.

McQuilkin sees Democratic candidates filing for Harrisonburg City Council seats, and says Bridgewater students are more engaged in this year’s presidential election than ever before.

While students are supporting both Obama and Republican nominee John McCain, McQuilkin said the college’s Democratic club “was moribund but now has significant life.”

Waynesboro Democratic Committee Chairman Chris Graham said Waynesboro, Staunton and Augusta County “are different politically and ideologically than five years ago.”

Graham said he does not anticipate 50 percent of the vote going for Obama in Tuesday’s election but said he would not be surprised “if it was solidly in the mid 40s.”

Transplants to the Shenandoah Valley from Northern Virginia and Charlottesville are having their impact, and so are young voters, Graham said.

He said it all started early in the decade with the Democratic gubernatorial candidacy of Mark Warner. Warner did better than previous Democratic nominees, and Tim Kaine broke through with a victory in Staunton in the 2005 gubernatorial campaign. Kaine garnered 50 percent of the vote in Staunton.

Graham said the groundwork has been laid for Democrats, and said candidates running for president, Congress and the U.S. Senate this year appeal to a broader range of voter.

“Candidates like Mark Warner, Sam Rasoul and Barack Obama appeal to centrist voters. They are not extreme ideologues,’’ Graham said.

Staunton Democratic Committee Chairman Bob Dickerman said a contested presidential election in the Shenandoah Valley is good for everybody, not just Democrats.

“Too many Republicans have been unchallenged,’’ Dickerman said of past Valley elections. “Now we have a two-party state and there is all this attention and excitement. To be a two-party state and locally is how you get good government.”

McQuilkin agrees. “People discuss how I feel about the issues, and what do I need to know about them. We haven’t had this conversation to any degree in recent elections,’’ he said.

Lynn Mitchell, a longtime member and leader in the Augusta County Republican Committee, said she can see the change just by the fact that the Staunton and Augusta County Democratic committees now have a year-round office on North Augusta Street in Staunton.

“I’ve been trying to get a year-round office and can’t get one,’’ Mitchell said.

Graham said he sees Democrats continuing to make inroads in the Valley.

“Maybe 2010, maybe 2012,’’ he said. “Using the baseball team analogy, we are putting the pieces in place.”