Warner retains lead over Gilmore in Senate ‘race’

By Jeff E. Schapiro, Media General News Service
Published: October 23, 2008

Virginia’s U.S. Senate race is anything but.

The latest Richmond Times-Dispatch Poll puts Democrat Mark R. Warner comfortably ahead of Republican Jim Gilmore — 58 percent to 33 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

Warner’s lead is essentially unchanged from two weeks ago, when the T-D Poll gave him 57 percent to 31 percent for Gilmore. Eleven percent were undecided.

The new survey shows Warner ahead of Gilmore in all regions of the state and among all voter groups, except Republicans. But even among Republicans, Warner is backed by one in four.

The Warner campaign played down the poll’s results. A Gilmore strategist suggested they are misleading.

“Governor Warner appreciates the broad support indicated by the polls, and he will be working extremely hard between now and the election day for the privilege of going to Washington to get to work on our nation’s challenges,” said Warner spokesman Kevin Hall.

Dick Leggitt, a senior adviser to Gilmore, said the poll is inaccurate because “a lot of conservatives won’t talk to pollsters, and when they hang up, the results get skewed.” Leggitt added, “A lot of the questions are so long only shut-ins have time to answer them.”

The contest to succeed retiring Sen. John W. Warner, R-Va., has been largely overshadowed by the presidential campaign. Virginia has emerged as a battleground, possibly poised to back a Democrat for the White House for the first time in 44 years.

Warner, with a 61 percent favorable rating — better than twice that for Gilmore, is now attempting to use his broad popularity to Obama’s advantage.

Warner is running radio commercials touting Obama, who — according to The T-D Poll — is effectively tied here with Republican John McCain. Also, Warner’s and Obama’s names appear side by side in promotional literature and yard signs.

Gilmore has coupled his candidacy with McCain’s, emphasizing shared ties to the right. Thursday, Gilmore announced his pledge to the American Conservative Union to oppose a continued prohibition on off-shore exploration for oil and gas.

The Senate campaign, between two former governors, is a study in contrasts.

Warner raised taxes during his term — a move supported by many voters. Gilmore cut taxes, but is widely viewed by Democrats and moderate Republicans as putting tax relief ahead of fiscal discipline.

The Times-Dispatch Poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, DC. Based on interviews with 625 registered voters, results could vary four percentage points in either direction.

Jeff E. Schapiro is a staff writer at the Richmond Times-Dispatch.