Making the case for change

By Marsha Mercer
Published: September 14, 2008

During the 1980 presidential campaign, Ronald Reagan, in a debate with President Jimmy Carter, famously suggested that voters answer a simple, but potent, question. 
“Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
That’s the way everybody remembers it, but when I went back to check, I found that Reagan didn’t stop there. 
“Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we’re as strong as we were four years ago?”
Bam. Bam. Bam. Bam. By hitting pocketbook and security concerns, Reagan framed the election as a referendum on Carter. Optimistic and upbeat, Reagan had the message of change before it became ubiquitous. On Election Day, he trounced Carter. 
Elections are never the same, but Democrat Barack Obama has tried to make 2008 a referendum on George Bush, saying that Republican John McCain would continue Bush’s unpopular policies for a third term. Here’s why that approach may not work for Obama.
Heaven knows, there’s plenty of misery a critic can lay on Bush. The economy is limping into recession, even if it’s not officially there. Unemployment has been rising and stands at 6.1 percent, the highest level in five years. The federal budget deficit has more than doubled over the last year and is projected to hit $407 billion this year. And that doesn’t count the cost of bailing out Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
The housing market in most places is still falling. Gasoline is still high, and energy prices are causing more worry as winter nears. Health care, Medicare and Social Security all face financial crises with our aging population.
More bad news, about Afghanistan, came from the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Adm. Mike Mullen. He told Congress this week that we aren’t winning in Afghanistan and time is running out for us to turn the situation around.
Meanwhile, immigration has been swept under the rug, and long-term solutions are not even being discussed. Officials announced this week that the 670 miles of U.S.-Mexico border fence the Bush administration was supposed to finish by the end of the year won’t be done. They’ve run out of money.
There’s not just one elephant in the room. There’s a herd of the beasts stomping around. But as the problems pile up, politicians just tip-toe around them. On Capitol Hill, Democrats blame Republicans and Republicans blame Democrats. 
McCain showed voters with his first big decision that he isn’t Bush. His choice of a Washington outsider and reformer as his running mate accentuated that McCain-Palin isn’t Bush-Cheney.
The Obama campaign won’t be doing voters a favor if it continues to let McCain get by with saying he’s a maverick without providing details on where his policies would differ from Bush’s. McCain hasn’t explained his maverick-ness much beyond his pledge to expose the names of lawmakers who put in for special projects or earmarks. 
The conventions were largely issue-free zones. Despite the intense focus on Sarah Palin, the election isn’t about her or pigs with lipstick. It’s between McCain and Obama.
The coming debates offer a chance the candidates will be forced onto issues. The first presidential debate is Sept. 26 in Oxford, Miss., followed the next week by the vice presidential debate Oct. 2 in St. Louis. Two more presidential debates are Oct. 7 in Nashville and Oct. 15 in Hempstead, N.Y.
Both McCain and Obama promise billions in tax cuts or new spending. They need to explain what they would cut to pay for their promises — or which other taxes they’d raise. 
I’m not expecting a repeat of Walter Mondale’s confession at the 1984 Democratic National Convention.
“Mr. Reagan will raise taxes – and so will I. He won’t tell you. I just did,” Mondale said.
Some said it was laudable candor, others that Mondale had a political death wish.
Voters weren’t in any mood to take a chance. Reagan coasted to re-election. Voters believed they would be better off with him.
What do you think? E-mail or comment at http://www.mgwashington.com.