Republicans lacking turnout

The News Virginian / News Virginian
Published: February 12, 2008

These are sobering times for right-minded folk in the Republican-rich Shenandoah Valley, and not just because their party's presidential nominee will be straight-talking leftie Sen. John McCain. As Virginians march off to the primary this morning, it's dusk in America for the GOP. The numbers that tell us so: Turnout.

So far, Democratic turnout this primary season has been about double that of Republicans. Democrats traditionally score better in this area than Republicans, but not to this extent. Some observers suggest that the GOP's slumbering conservative base might be roused by the prospect of another Clinton presidency, should Hillary get the Democratic nomination, but there's little reason to buy that line.

After all, conservatives could not derail Bill Clinton, even with the advantage of an incumbent president on their side of the ticket in one race and an icon of right-wing Senate power in the other. Granted, Republican candidates George H.W. Bush and Bob Dole brought to their respective races the combined energy of a land slug, but that does not mitigate the point: Hillary Clinton can't save the Republicans.

We don't get into the business of endorsing for primaries, and we don't like the idea of calling presidential races almost nine months in advance of the election, but this one looks like it's the Democrats' to lose. The bet seems even surer given conservative hand-wringing over McCain.

While liberals and their allies, starting with most television political pundits, say his candidacy signals the end of conservatism as we know it, McCain knows better. He's vowing to continue the Bush tax cuts — among Dubya's few conservative political strokes — shrink government (which Bush doubled), strengthen the national defense and build on his strong pro-life record. McCain would retain Bush's weakness on immigration. But he appears nonetheless to recognize that however poor his chances, they are decidedly better with conservatives in his camp.

The same works in reverse. The failure of conservatives to turn out for the primaries helped bounce Mitt Romney and Rudolph Giuliani out of the contest. McCain is the last man standing (never mind the already finished Mike Huckabee) in no small part because so few conservatives stood up to be counted.

Conservatives still possess enough clout to draw McCain to them. The question is, how will rank-and-file conservatives utilize that clout- While questions over McCain's sincerity are legitimate, conservatives must wonder over the effects of turning their backs on the race entirely. It would appear that conservatives need McCain as badly as he needs them.

Failing to recognize as much, conservatives should begin now to get accustomed to the words, President Clinton or President Obama. At least with regard to the former, the words will not be foreign. In either case, conservatives would have only themselves to blame.

It does not appear problematic on its face: Republican Del. Chris Saxman, of Staunton, rooms with fellow GOP lawmaker Sen. Ryan McDougle during General Assembly sessions. The trouble- The riverfront condo where the pair crash is owned by McDougle and his wife, Bea, who just happens to be a tobacco lobbyist.

Saxman and the McDougles have been cozy since the lawmakers arrived in Richmond in 2002, according to a Sunday column by Jeff E. Schapiro of the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Before moving into to the riverfront pad, Saxman stayed with the McDougles at their Hanover home. Schapiro writes that Bea McDougle's firm threw a fundraiser for Saxman at its Tobacco Row office and landed a marketing contract from a trade group chaired by Saxman.

As Schapiro points out, the relationship does not appear to be impacting Saxman's votes. Bea McDougal's clients include the state's lone horse track and payday lenders. Saxman is a gambling opponent and helped write a bill cracking down on payday lenders.

But lawmakers have significantly more to offer than their votes. They also have valuable inside information on the legislature. True enough, Bea McDougle has an even better, closer source than Saxman if she wants the skinny.

The real problem is Virginia's ethics law. It is among the nation's murkiest and loosest, putting most of the ethics onus on elected officials censoring themselves. That's a little like having the cat stand guard at the bird cage. Saxman and others might have legally acceptable explanations for their relationships, but that doesn't mean they'll fly.